All patients underwent central neck lymph node removal. LNM outside of the central neck was done only if abnormal nodes were noted before surgery. The main study outcome was recurrence-free survival, defined as the duration from initial surgery to the first recurrence of the cancer. The 509 study patients were randomly assigned to either the training group (used to establish the serum CT levels predictive of spread of the MTC outside of the neck, 339 patients) or the validation group (testing the new CT levels for surgery, 170 patients) groups.
Out of the 509 study patients, 55% were females. The average patient age was 50 years, and the average follow-up was 52 months. There was a positive correlation between blood CT levels and the extent of neck LNM, with average CT values of 212 pg/ml in the no spread group, 468 pg/ml in the LNM in the central neck group, 1748 pg/ml in the LNM in the lateral neck, and 4558 pg/ml in the LNM in the upper chest group. Using the training group, the CT thresholds to predict the extent of neck LNM were calculated as being 242 pg/ ml for LNM in the central neck, 694 pg/ml for LNM in the lateral neck on 1 side, 2379 pg/ml for LNM in the lateral neck on both sides, and 2782 pg/ml for LNM in the upper chest. These new blood CT thresholds were superior compared to the thresholds used in the 2015 ATA guidelines to predict the extent of LNM in both the training and validation groups. The new CT thresholds were also superior in indicating the patients’ prognosis measured as recurrence-free survival in the 4 LNM groups. The 5-year recurrence-free survival was 95% in the no LNM, 93% in the LNM in the lateral neck on one side, 84% in the LNM in the lateral neck on both sides, and 73% in the LMN in the upper chest.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS STUDY?
The study provides updated calcitonin thresholds using modern assays to predict neck LNM extent and recurrence risk in MTC. These thresholds can help decide the extent of initial surgery in MTC, and especially whether lateral neck dissection would be indicated. The results need to be validated in prospective studies in different populations.
— Alina Gavrila, MD, MMSC